President Bola Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) suffered a significant setback in the Osun state governorship election, losing the race despite internal claims of a victory for democracy. The vote, held on August 16, marked a key test for the ruling party as it handles the political terrain ahead of 2027. Osun governorship election result delivered a decisive win for the incumbent, Ademola Adeleke, who ran on the platform of the little-known Accord Party against APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji. The outcome defied expectations set by APC stalwarts who had openly boasted about reclaiming the state.
Process and Violence
The election was widely watched as a model for Nigerian polls, meeting several benchmarks including real-time result uploads via the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) portal. Supporters of the government scrambled to dress up the result, citing the transparent process as clear evidence of Tinubu’s respect for democratic tenets. Even the re-elected governor thanked Tinubu for his “strong support for a free and fair election,” a statement the president echoed in his congratulatory message.
Related: Africa’s debt relief hopes dim again
Tension had mounted in the run-up to the vote. There were violent clashes between supporters of the top two rivals during campaigns and on voting day, resulting in the deaths of more than 30 people according to civic group estimates. The Accord Party accused the APC of attempting to win by all means, with opposition commentator Pat Utomi stating that “Osun was won at a high price.” Nearly 30 lives were lost, he said, to keep “evil from having its way.”
Less than two weeks before the vote, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) announced a freeze of Osun State’s bank accounts as part of a corruption investigation. It was widely read as a move to cripple Adeleke’s campaign and drew public outrage. Tinubu immediately ordered the EFCC to stay action, acknowledging it was a bad look for the government. For his partisans, it was an act of courage, but some of the president’s opponents saw his intervention as mere damage control.
Wider Implications
Tinubu has faced accusations of seeking total APC dominance, a strategy often measured by the large number of elected officials that have defected to the ruling party following the last elections in early 2023. Since then, at least six opposition state governors elected as members of other parties have defected to the APC. They have been joined by at least 75 lawmakers, including 25 senators and 50 members of the House of Representatives.
Related: Startups chosen for Nairobi investment showcase
The best-known example of the ruling party weakening the opposition involves Nyesom Wike, the minister in charge of the federal capital, Abuja, who supports Tinubu while remaining a member of the PDP. Following the Osun elections, Wike told the outlet that Tinubu had no interest in winning the vote by all costs. “If the President wanted to win Osun at all costs, I would’ve been involved, and I would have been there,” he said.
The Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room, a grouping of more than 60 rights groups that monitored the vote, noted the role of some parties in offering cash and food incentives to voters. Ballots were also delayed in some areas due to logistical delays. The indication from the Osun vote is that the biggest political risk facing Nigeria going into the coming general elections is that of violence. Independent monitors have expressed concern about the readiness to deploy violence by rival political groups. “Allegations of incitement to violence must be promptly, impartially and thoroughly investigated,” Amnesty International’s Nigeria office said in a statement.
